Oliver Hümbelin, Olivier Tim Lehmann, Sebastian Torkisz (2026)
Since 2017, social assistance rates have declined both nationwide in Switzerland and in the canton of Basel-Stadt. This report examines whether this development is associated with an increase in hidden poverty. Using linked tax and administrative register data, we estimate non-take-up of social assistance in the city of Basel for the period 2016–2022. The analysis focuses on the permanent resident population within the jurisdiction of ordinary social assistance. Eligibility is defined as having financial resources below the legally defined subsistence minimum; individuals and support units who do not claim benefits despite being eligible are classified as non-take-up cases.
Despite population growth, the number of potentially eligible individuals declined over the observation period. At the same time, both the number of benefit recipients and non-recipients decreased, while the non-take-up rate increased slightly. Overall, the findings do not indicate a widespread shift from visible to hidden poverty, but suggest that the decline in social assistance receipt exceeded the reduction in poverty exposure. Changes in the socio-demographic composition of the eligible population—including an increase in households with children and foreign residents—may contribute to these patterns. A difference-in-differences analysis reveals a statistically significant increase in non-take-up among third-country nationals holding permanent residence permits following the 2019 revision of the Swiss Foreign Nationals and Integration Act. This suggests that institutional reforms can raise the risk of hidden poverty for specific population groups. Given rising living costs, housing expenses, and health insurance premiums, continuous monitoring of financial vulnerability beyond social assistance receipt remains essential.
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